The Science of Guessing: How Our Brains Make Constant Guesses

TLDR Our brains are constantly making guesses, and while science doesn't fully understand the process, different parts of the brain are involved in different types of guessing. By exposing ourselves to different situations and learning from feedback, we can improve our guessing skills and make better estimates.

Timestamped Summary

00:00 This podcast episode is about the topic of guessing and how our brains are constantly making guesses, even though science doesn't fully understand the process.
05:30 This section discusses the nature of guessing and how different parts of the brain are involved in the guessing process, but science still doesn't fully understand how it works.
10:33 Different parts of the brain are involved in different types of guessing, such as spatial reasoning for guessing quantities and recognizing faces for guessing emotions, and guesses can be categorized into working knowledge and emotional/intellectual buckets, with further breakdowns into wild guesses, educated guesses, and estimates based on the amount of information and expertise available.
16:02 You can improve your guessing skills by exposing yourself to different situations and learning from immediate feedback, and there are techniques you can use to get better at guessing the number of jelly beans in a jar.
21:38 You can train yourself to make better guesses and estimates, both in terms of judging the volume of a container and in empathic accuracy when interacting with others.
27:10 Stop trying to figure out what other people are really thinking and feeling, because your guesses are colored by your past history and can lead to cognitive distortions and polarized thinking.
31:44 When it comes to guessing things, your past experiences and personal biases can influence your guesses, and you may take your own guesses as fact even when they are incorrect.
36:25 Guessing on multiple choice tests can be improved by choosing "none of the above" or "all of the above" as an answer, and by selecting the longest answer option.
41:49 One strategy for guessing on multiple choice tests is to look at the surrounding answers and eliminate any that seem out of place or too similar to each other.
47:10 One strategy for guessing in rock, paper, scissors is to play the option that wasn't played in the previous round, and another strategy is to mirror your opponent's move to throw them off.
52:09 One theory for how we make guesses is called theory of mind, where we have the capability to attribute mental states to other people, and this ability is not limited to humans but also found in some apes.
57:15 The speaker describes a frustrating experience at the DMV in Texas where she had to go through unnecessary steps to prove her name change, highlighting how these laws are designed to suppress voter registration and participation.
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