The Art of Guessing: How the Brain Makes Estimates and Judgments

TLDR Guessing is a complex phenomenon that involves various parts of the brain and can be influenced by factors such as recognition, memory, and recall. Intuition and estimating can be developed through training and exposure, but it's important to focus on what you know to be true rather than inventing assumptions.

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05:36 Guessing is a common and complex phenomenon that involves various parts of the brain and can be influenced by factors such as recognition, memory, and recall.
10:47 Guessing involves different regions of the brain and can be divided into categories such as working knowledge and emotional/intellectual guesses, as well as wild guesses, educated guesses, and estimates.
16:08 Intuition is closely related to estimating and can be developed through training and exposure, as demonstrated by the host's improvement in estimating crowd sizes through live shows.
22:06 You can train yourself to make better guesses and estimates by learning a few things, such as judging the volume of a container and understanding the proportion of spherical objects in it, but it's unclear whether you can train yourself to be better at emotional guessing.
27:27 Your guesses about what other people are thinking and feeling are often colored by your past experiences and may not be accurate, so it's best to stop trying to read other people's minds.
32:19 Your past experiences and personal traits can influence your ability to guess things, and it's important to focus on what you know to be true rather than inventing assumptions.
37:13 Guessing on multiple choice tests can be improved by ignoring conventional wisdom, such as choosing "none of the above" or "all of the above" options, and selecting the longest answer, which is often the correct one.
42:48 One strategy for guessing on multiple choice tests is to eliminate answer choices that don't fit with the rest or that are very similar to each other.
48:11 Mirror neurons in the brain may play a role in our ability to guess what other people will do based on past experiences and observations.
53:10 One theory for how we make guesses is called theory of mind, which is the capability of attributing thoughts and feelings to other people, and researchers have found that apes, like humans, are capable of this higher form of reasoning.
58:23 The speaker shares a frustrating experience of dealing with bureaucratic obstacles when trying to update her name after a divorce, highlighting how these types of laws can disenfranchise individuals and suppress voter registration and participation.
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