The Misery Index: A Flawed Economic Tool or Legitimate Predictor?
TLDR The podcast explores the concept of the misery index, a measurement that combines inflation and unemployment rates to predict political outcomes. While some argue that the index is too simplistic and flawed, others believe that with enough data, it can provide a clear picture of a country's level of misery.
Timestamped Summary
00:00
The podcast episode titled "What's the misery index?" from "Stuff You Should Know" discusses the concept of the misery index.
04:50
The article discusses the parallel between economics and astrology, suggesting that economics is flawed when used for future forecasting, while also mentioning the legitimacy of the misery index as an economic tool.
09:46
Okan's law states that for every percentage point that unemployment falls between 3 and 7.5%, the gross national product rises by 3%.
15:00
The oil embargo in 1973 led to a shock to the US economy, causing high inflation and unemployment rates, which became known as stagflation.
19:36
The misery index, which measures the combination of inflation and unemployment rates, can be used to predict whether a presidency will change hands politically.
24:11
The economic impact of a president's term is felt years later, and while Carter may have been unfairly blamed for the high misery index during his presidency, Reagan's policies had a significant impact on lowering it.
28:47
The misery index is considered too simplistic and flawed because it doesn't accurately reflect the economic conditions on the ground or the success of a president's economic policies.
33:39
The Barrow Misery Index was created by economist Robert Barrow and measures the health of the economy by taking into account factors such as inflation, unemployment, government bond yield, and GDP growth. Steve Henke later expanded on this index by adding more factors such as interest rates and annual percentages from the GDP, and applied it to countries around the world to determine their level of misery. Venezuela was found to be the most miserable country in 2014, while Japan had the lowest level of misery. Critics argue that these indexes are too simplistic and cannot be used to make accurate predictions about the future, but others believe that with enough data, a clear picture of misery can be obtained.
38:28
The U6 measurement of unemployment is the broadest and includes people who have given up looking for work and those who are working part-time but want full-time work, which is considered the most accurate snapshot of unemployment, although the U3 measurement is typically used; the HuffPo's "real misery index" takes into account factors such as inflation rates of essential items, credit card delinquency, housing costs, food stamp usage, and home equity loan deficiencies to provide a more comprehensive measure of misery.
43:03
Unemployment causes 1.7 times more misery than inflation, according to a 2001 paper that looked at the interplay between unemployment, inflation, and life satisfaction.
47:33
This section of the podcast includes some banter and discussion about the possibility of "Stuff You Should Know" becoming a television show, as well as mentions of social media and contact information for the podcast.
Categories:
Society & Culture