Prompt Cast
The Art and Science of Futurology: Predicting the Future
TLDR Futurologists use logic and techniques to predict the future, often influenced by societal context, and while some predictions can seem mundane or wackadoo, others have proven to be accurate. Techniques such as the DELPHE method and computer algorithms are used to generate consensus on potential future scenarios, but there are limitations to predicting the future.
Timestamped Summary
00:00
Futurologists use logic and techniques to predict the future, but sometimes their predictions can seem mundane or wackadoo.
04:42
Futurology is the recognition and assessment of potential future events, often influenced by the societal context of the time, and while it can be criticized for being based on present or recent past experiences, it can also be awe-inspiring when predictions turn out to be accurate.
09:05
Futurology involves predicting future events in order to stay ahead of technological advancements and societal changes, and one method used is the DELPHE technique, which gathers opinions from experts in various fields to generate a consensus on potential future scenarios.
13:48
Futurologists use scenarios to predict future events, which can range from mundane situations like fire drills to complex predictions made through computer algorithms, and Herman Kahn, a super genius and celebrity, was one of the pioneers in forecasting the future.
19:06
The Club of Rome and Herman Kahn had opposing outlooks on the future, with the Club of Rome predicting resource depletion and overpopulation leading to doom, while Kahn believed that technology and innovation could solve any future problems.
23:17
Businesses in the 60s and 70s started using models to predict the future, and think tanks like the Stanford Research Institute Futures Group and the California Institute of Technology were breeding grounds for futurists, who used techniques like brainstorming, scenarios, and game theory to make predictions.
28:08
Futurology involves working backwards from a desired future outcome using techniques like back casting and computer modeling, but there are limitations to predicting the future, as demonstrated by missed predictions such as the oil crisis and the incorrect estimations of oil reserves by the US government.
32:37
Science fiction writers like Jules Verne, H.G. Wells, and Hugo Gernsbach have made accurate predictions about future technologies and concepts such as space travel, tanks, the atom bomb, video phones, and solar power.
37:18
The podcast discusses various predictions for the future that missed the mark, including launching freight across the continent with missiles, nuclear power vacuum cleaners, dissolving dishes, and Canada becoming a subtropical climate due to a dome.
41:48
The podcast briefly mentions an email from a listener named Shelby who brings up the injustice suffered by hemophilia patients during the AIDS crisis due to pharmaceutical companies not pasteurizing the clotting factor concentrate, which spread HIV.
Categories:
Society & Culture
