Prompt Cast
The Accuracy of Election Predictions and the Rise of Super Forecasters
TLDR In this episode, the hosts interview journalist Carl Diggler, a fictional character known for his accurate election predictions. They discuss the rise of Super Forecasters who use intuition and gather information from various sources to predict complex geopolitical events. The hosts also touch on tweets about an "infinite recursion starter pack" and fan fiction for the game Fallout.
Timestamped Summary
00:00
A journalist with a high success rate in political predictions named Carl Diggler is interviewed about his love for elections and his ability to calm the interviewer's anxiety about the unpredictability of the current election.
04:00
The journalist, Carl Diggler, is a fictional character created by Felix and Virgil, but his predictions about elections are surprisingly accurate.
08:02
Felix and Virgil believe that real pundits have complete contempt for everyday Americans and look down on them, which is why they accurately predicted the backlash against the political establishment in the 2016 election.
11:43
There are people called Super Forecasters who can predict big, complex, geopolitical events better than government intelligence analysts, and they tend to be intellectually humble.
15:42
Felix and Virgil, like Super Forecasters, gather information from various sources and use their intuition to make predictions, which is different from pundits who often dig into their positions and are less accurate the more famous they are.
19:37
Animal forecasters like Carl Diggler, Teddy bear the porcupine, Ozzie the Grizzly Bear, Apollo the Lion, Koji the McCaw, and Nancy the Galapagos tortoise have been making accurate predictions, but it's still unclear if Carl's forecasting abilities are genuine or just luck.
24:06
The host and PJ are discussing two tweets, one about an infinite recursion starter pack and the other about fan fiction for the game Fallout.
29:02
The tweet is about a person who wants to start a day called "the triggering" where people post offensive things on social media to defend free speech and insult social justice warriors, and the person who wrote the tweet also writes My Little Pony crossover fan fiction.
32:58
The hosts discuss a book called "Fallout Equestria, New Pegas" which is a piece of fan fiction that combines the My Little Pony universe with the game Fallout.
37:34
The hosts wrap up the episode by thanking their guest, Jason Manzukas, and providing information on where to find more episodes and watch the full video of the Elaine Rich interview.
Categories:
Technology
Society & Culture
