Prompt Cast
Planet Money Predictions and Forecasting Competition 2021
TLDR Economic forecasters on Planet Money made predictions about home prices, jobs, and inflation, with Diane Swank winning the competition by accurately predicting the rise in inflation. Despite a booming economy, millions of workers, especially low-wage black women, have not returned to work.
Timestamped Summary
00:00
Economic forecasters make predictions about home prices, jobs, and inflation on Planet Money Predictions.
02:37
Alfredo's forecast of 12.29% for the rise in home prices was closer to the actual 19% than Diane's, earning him a point in the predictions game.
05:23
Diane Swank won the Planet Money 2021 Predictions and Forecasting Competition by being the closest to predicting the rise in inflation, which was largely influenced by a surge in demand for goods amidst supply chain issues.
07:54
Millions of workers have not returned to work despite a booming economy and high demand for workers, with low-wage black women being the hardest hit, while retail wages have increased, especially for entry-level and low-wage workers.
10:41
Inflation is predicted to cool down significantly, but potential factors like oil prices and supply chain issues could impact the forecast.
13:34
Businesses are engaging in a wage-price spiral, potentially leading to increased inflation, with differing views on future inflation levels based on changing inflation expectations.
15:58
Predictions are made regarding home prices and job growth, with varying estimates between 8% and 12% for home prices and 200,000 to 350,000 new jobs per month.
