Prompt Cast
Challenges in Modern Polling Techniques
TLDR Polling experts at Marist College Polling Center are facing a crisis as declining response rates and reluctance from people to engage with pollsters impact the accuracy of election polls. To combat this, pollsters are exploring alternative methods like texting for data collection and using techniques such as waiting and the wisdom of crowds to improve predictions.
Timestamped Summary
00:00
Polling experts train Planet Money hosts on effective techniques for conducting election polls at Marist College Polling Center.
03:25
Pollsters are facing a crisis as not enough people are completing surveys, impacting the accuracy of polling data.
07:08
Barbara, a prominent pollster, oversees the Marist poll and ensures accuracy to avoid historical polling blunders.
10:36
Polling blunders in history emphasized the importance of obtaining a representative sample, leading to the adoption of random sampling techniques in polling.
14:14
Polling has become increasingly challenging due to difficulties in obtaining a random and representative sample, with declining response rates and restrictions on robo-dialing contributing to inaccuracies in recent elections.
18:48
Polling industry faces challenges in completing surveys due to declining response rates and people's reluctance to engage with pollsters, prompting the exploration of alternative methods like texting for data collection.
22:29
Pollsters use waiting to adjust survey samples and are exploring methods like the wisdom of crowds to improve the accuracy of election predictions.
25:54
A survey using wisdom of crowds questions found that responses heavily favored Republicans compared to standard polling questions, with further analysis needed to determine the accuracy and usefulness of these results.
